Satellite lights, Google searches cut state growth estimation errors by up

Benchmarks Nifty22,600.00-87.66FEATURED FUNDS★★★★★UTI Aggressive Hybrid Fund Regular Plan-Growth5Y Return8.69 % Invest NowFEATURED FUNDS★★★★★Motilal Oswal Midcap Fund Direct-Growth5Y Return18.25 % Invest NowEnter search text:

The Economic Times daily newspaper is available online now. Read Today's Paper Satellite lights, Google searches cut state growth estimation errors by up to 62%: RBI studyET OnlineLast Updated: Oct 23, 2026, 07:09:00 PM ISTSynopsis

RBI study indicates that combining night-time light data with Google search trends can improve state economic growth estimates. Researchers tested their model in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Karnataka, showing significant reductions in forecasting errors. This framework could help provide timely economic insights, as state data is often delayed. Night-time illumination proved to be a strong predictor of Gross State Value Added growth.

A combination of satellite-based night-time lights and Google search data can improve estimates of state-level economic growth, reducing forecasting errors by up to 62%, according to a study published in the Reserve Bank of India’s October Bulletin.

The study, Nowcasting State-Level Economic Activity in India with Night-Time Light and Google Trends, developed a quarterly framework to track economic activity in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka using indicators that are available more frequently than official state economic data.

Gross State Value Added (GSVA) figures are typically released annually with a lag of 12-18 months, making it difficult to assess how state economies are performing in real time.

The researchers said the proposed framework could supplement official statistics by providing more timely estimates.

The model combined satellite imagery measuring night-time illumination with Google Trends search indices across 25 categories, including jobs and education, finance, shopping, real estate and automobiles.

Live Events

It also incorporated past GSVA growth to estimate current economic activity.

The researchers compared the model’s performance with a benchmark based on past GSVA growth alone.

Adding both night-time lights and Google search data reduced the root mean squared error (RMSE), a measure of estimation error, by about 38% for Maharashtra, 54% for Karnataka and 62% for Gujarat. The combined indicators also improved estimates compared with using satellite data alone.

The study found a strong correlation between year-on-year growth in night-time lights and overall GSVA growth. The correlation was highest in Maharashtra at 0.90, followed by Karnataka at 0.79 and Gujarat at 0.66.

The relationship remained strong and statistically significant even after the researchers excluded quarters affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Night-time light data also provided predictive information about subsequent GSVA growth, while Google Trends data appeared to contribute mainly through contemporaneous signals.

The researchers cautioned that the framework had been tested only in three industrial states. They said it was intended to complement, rather than replace, official economic statistics.
Add as a Reliable and Trusted News Source Add Now!
(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
Read More News oneconomic growth estimationsatellite dataGoogle searchesRBI studyNowcasting economic activityrbi bulletin october
(You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel)
Read More News oneconomic growth estimationsatellite dataGoogle searchesRBI studyNowcasting economic activityrbi bulletin october Prime ExclusivesInvestment IdeasStock Report PlusePaperWealth Edition

• KYB and KYC: Business behind the wealth creator called “Divi’s Lab” – Part 1

• The global business of promising more

• One company, 2 words. Bond yield and CDS: Will they decide the fate of global markets?

• Business of Odd Things: Inside an industry that farms fish that nobody is meant to eat

• War's second-order effects are becoming visible in critical sectors

• US mid-term elections – Part 2: What does it mean for Trump to lose control of Congress?

• 1
• 2
• 3

View all StoriesContinue reading with one of these options:Limited AccessFreeLogin to get access to some exclusive stories
& personalised newslettersLogin NowUnlimited AccessStarting @ Rs120/monthGet access to exclusive stories, expert opinions &
in-depth stock reportsSubscribe NowET

Unlock Access to All Exclusives with ETPrime FREE TRIAL

15 Days Free: Unlock All ETPrime Exclusives, Market Tools & ePapers

Trial offer expiring in00 : 05 : 00

I'd rather pay ₹2599 now

Uh-oh! This is an exclusive story available for selected readers only.

Worry not. You’re just a step away.

Prime Account Detected!

It seems like you're already an ETPrime member with

Login using your ET Prime credentials to enjoy all member benefits

Log out of your current logged-in account and log in again using your ET Prime credentials to enjoy all member benefits.

Unlock ETPrime's Exclusive Stories Today!

Big Price Drop! Flat 40% Off

Student Only OfferAlready a Member? Sign In nowAlready a Member? Sign In nowAlready a Member? Sign In now

Offer Exclusively For You

Save up to Rs. 700/-

ON ET PRIME MEMBERSHIP

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

Get 1 Year Free

With 1 and 2-Year ET prime membership

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

Get 1 Year Free

With 1 and 2-Year ET prime membership

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

Get Flat 40% Off

Then ₹ 1749 for 1 year

Avail Offer

Offer Exclusively For You

ET Prime at ₹ 49 for 1 month

Then ₹ 1749 for 1 year

Avail Offer

Special Offer

Get flat 40% off on ETPrime

Avail OfferAvail OfferClaim NowAlready a Member? Sign In now

Need Assistance?

Connect with an ETPrime expert for personalized support and guidance

+91 9484700004'; }); } if(listing) { var h3 = "You tried reading " + listArr.length + " locked stories in the past " + threshold + " days.", h4 = "Become an ET Prime member and don't miss out on these exclusive stories."; var html = '

' + h3 + '

' + h4 + '

' + listing + '

'; $('#paidSCWidget').html(html); var callback = $('#paidSCWidget').attr('data-callback'); if(callback && window[callback]) { window[callback](); } customDimension.dimension72 += ' | Shown SYFT no Trial_With Missed Paywalled Articles Collection'; } else { _processNormal() } } }); } else { _processNormal(); } } catch (e) { _processNormal(); } }, function () { _processNormal(); }); //console.log('storyCollectionLoad', $); }

What’s Included with

ETPrime Membership

1Exclusive Insights That Matter

Uncover the truth with our investigative stories

Make strategic moves using the real-world case studies

Read industry-specific stories to identify emerging trends

Spot opportunities with
in-depth insights that matter

• Trump temper on H-1B visas is forcing Indians to do these things to stay put in US

  What Adani’s US indictment means for India Inc’s overseas fundraising

• Why veterans like Reliance, L&T are on acquisition spree? Aswath Damodaran has an answer.

  Will China’s dollar bond sale in Saudi Arabia trump the US in financial world?

• Huawei launches its own OS to compete with Google and Apple. But can it win beyond China?

  The problem with lab grown diamonds

• Why a falling rupee is a better option for the economy

  A list of top 20 momentum stocks that have delivered massive returns in one year

2Invest Wisely With Smart Market Tools & Investment Ideas

Alpha Trade

Get daily trade ideas from SEBI-registered research analysts.

Investment Ideas

Grow your wealth with stock ideas & sectoral trends.

Stock Reports Plus

All-in-one stock research with Stock Score, peer comparison & key signals.

BigBull Portfolio

Get to know where the market bulls are investing to identify the right stocks.

Stock Analyzer

Check the score based on the company's fundamentals, solvency, growth, risk & ownership to decide the right stocks.

Market Mood

Analyze the market sentiments & identify the trend reversal for strategic decisions.

Stock Talk Live at 9 AM Daily

Ask your stock queries & get assured replies by ET appointed, SEBI registered experts.

3Stay informed anytime, anywhere with ET ePaper

ePaper - Print View

Read the PDF version of ET newspaper. Download & access it offline anytime.

ePaper - Digital View

Read your daily newspaper in Digital View & get it delivered to your inbox everyday.

Wealth Edition

Manage your money efficiently with this weekly money management guide.

TOI ePaper

Read the PDF version of TOI newspaper. Download & access it offline anytime.

Deep Explainers

Explore the In-depth explanation of complex topics for everyday life decisions.

Health+ Stories

Get fitter with daily health insights committed to your well-being.

Personal Finance+ Stories

Manage your wealth better with in-depth insights & updates on finance.

5Enjoy Complimentary Subscriptions From Top Brands

Stream new documentaries from all across the world every day.

Stories you might be interested in